Kamala Harris, US Vice-President and the Democratic presidential candidate, is making surprising inroads into a crucial voting bloc of white working-class voters in key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This shift is significant, as these voters were instrumental in Trump’s 2016 victory, breaking the “Blue Wall” and securing his presidency.
Traditionally part of Trump’s core support base, these white working-class voters are now showing signs of shifting their support to Harris. This unexpected trend could play a decisive role in determining the next President of the United States. The presidential election is set for November.
Recent polls have shown that Kamala Harris has a lead over Trump in seven swing states.
Donald Trump’s lead in the polls is showing a downward trend. The advantage he once held over Joe Biden now appears to be diminishing in the face of Kamala Harris’s growing support.
Kamala Harris is an Indian-American politician.
POLLS SHOW HARRIS MAKING GAINS
In May, Trump held a commanding 25-point lead among non-college-educated white voters when he was competing against Joe Biden for the presidency. That lead has narrowed by 11 points now.
However, Biden, 81, the oldest serving US president, faced mounting pressure from Democrats to withdraw from the race after his poor performance in the first debate against Trump on June 27 in Atlanta, Georgia.
Following the debate, Biden bowed out of the race on July 21 and endorsed Kamala Harris. Harris, who gained support from delegates, secured the Democratic presidential nomination on August 6 and is now running against Trump. She has also chosen Tim Walz as her running mate.
However, recent polls reveal a dramatic change, with his lead shrinking to just 14 points by August.
“Donald Trump was up by 25 points in May but now leads by 14 points in August, nearly slicing his advantage in half. Harris’s performance among that group now is actually better than Joe Biden’s was four years ago among those voters in those key states. These are the type of numbers that Kamala Harris needs to put up in order to win,” said Harry Enten, CNN’s Senior Data reporter.
NON-COLLEGE-EDUCATED WHITES KEY TO ELECTION
Non-college-educated whites are a significant voting bloc, particularly in swing states where they comprise nearly half of the electorate.
“Non-college whites are the key groups across the board. They are plurality voters in the electoral when you compare them with college-educated whites or with African American voters and Hispanics, especially in Michigan and Pennsylvania,” said Harry Enten.
“In these states, non-college whites make up a majority with 50%, compared to 27% college-educated whites and 13% Black or Hispanic voters. Non-college whites are the key groups across the board. The fact is Harris is closing in on Trump with them,” he added.
The narrowing margin between Trump and Harris underscores the crucial role of economic issues in this election.
Harris’s message of economic change is resonating with white working-class voters, enhancing her prospects in these key states and potentially reshaping the political landscape in her favour.
If Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election, she will become the first woman president in the history of the United States.