Gone are the days of multi-starrer films like Amar Akbar Anthony, where the winning formula was to bring three big stars together under one banner to create a super-hit film. The only drawback from the stars’ point of view was that none of them could solely claim credit for the film’s success. However, audiences could sense that Amitabh Bachchan in Amar Akbar Anthony was the one who had the most crowd-pleasing scenes. In Maharashtra, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance is facing a similar situation.
The MVA is a three-party alliance formed under unique political circumstances, which led to Uddhav Thackeray, then the united Shiv Sena chief, becoming the leader of the alliance and the Chief Minister of Maharashtra in 2019. When the BJP initiated its ‘Operation Lotus’—a term widely used in the media to describe the saffron party efforts to topple opposition governments by breaking ruling alliances or party MLAs—Uddhav Thackeray was the first to be targeted. He not only lost his party’s name and symbol but also became an example for other NDA alliance partners of what could happen if they broke ties with the ruling BJP.
The fall of Uddhav’s government was followed by the breaking of the Pawar family and subsequently the NCP, a party founded by Maharashtra political patriarch Sharad Pawar. But the first blow was dealt to Uddhav and his family. Now, with the MVA having defeated the NDA in the recent Lok Sabha elections by winning 31 out of 48 seats in Maharashtra, Uddhav is eyeing the Chief Minister’s position if the MVA can replicate this performance in the upcoming state assembly polls. He acknowledges that the alliance is a multi-starrer film, but insists that he is the crowd-puller.
An interesting development is that Shiv Sena (UBT) was already trying to align with the Congress high command even before the Lok Sabha election campaign began. Shiv Sena (UBT)’s mouthpiece, Saamana, consistently supported Rahul Gandhi as the face of the INDIA bloc, even when many other partners were reluctant to do so. Shiv Sena (UBT) wanted the Congress high command to compensate for this support when the question of leadership in the MVA would arise. Despite quarrels between Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Congress state leadership over seat sharing during the Lok Sabha elections, Thackeray’s rapport with the Gandhis remained intact.
Even though the MVA won 31 seats in the Lok Sabha in Maharashtra, the dynamics within it have changed. Despite contesting the maximum number of Lok Sabha seats, Shiv Sena (UBT) had the weakest strike rate. The Congress managed to win 13 out of the 17 seats it contested, UBT won only 9 out of 21, and Sharad Pawar maintained the best strike rate by winning 8 out of 10. Before the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress was considered the weakest link among MVA partners, but after the elections, it has emerged as the strongest.
Sharad Pawar and his party have shown that they have not only retained their identity but also won in their areas of influence. On the other hand, Uddhav Thackeray lost in Shiv Sena’s core area of Konkan, managed to retain seats in Mumbai with Congress’s voter base, but lost out to Eknath Shinde in his stronghold, Thane. Despite this, internal surveys conducted by the Congress indicate that Uddhav remains the most sought-after leader within the MVA.
During Uddhav’s recent visit to Delhi, he made sure to meet all the key decision-makers in the Congress, from strategist Sunil Kanugolu and KC Venugopal to Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi, and Sonia Gandhi. The Congress is urging Uddhav Thackeray to agree to a joint survey to decide seat distribution and avoid conflicts within the alliance. Uddhav, however, has asked the Congress leadership to abandon the formula that gives the Chief Minister’s position to the party that wins the most seats after the elections.
Uddhav argues that this formula creates friction within the alliance, as each party starts demanding the maximum number of seats to increase their chances of winning the most. He is seeking assurance from the Congress on this matter. In a recent MVA meeting, Uddhav publicly pitched the idea of doing away with the “most seats = Chief Minister post” formula, pushing the alliance partners to agree to his demand.
Uddhav has realised that only by being announced as the chief ministerial candidate will he be able to retain his party leaders. Eknath Shinde continues to weaken Shiv Sena (UBT) by poaching ground-level leaders. Although Shiv Sena has faced challenges in the past when stalwarts left the party, Shinde poses the biggest challenge to the Thackerays. Shiv Sena (UBT) leaders feel that the party previously managed to contain threats from figures like Narayan Rane and Raj Thackeray because neither of them held the Chief Minister’s post. Eknath Shinde, however, with his powerful position as Chief Minister, has not only managed to keep 40 rebel MLAs with him but has also attracted more leaders from Uddhav’s camp. He has also managed to win 7 Lok Sabha seats, just two fewer than Uddhav.
To counter this, Uddhav believes the only way forward is to have the MVA announce him as the chief ministerial face, and if the MVA wins the election, he should be granted the post. By raising the chief ministerial question publicly, Uddhav has ensured that there will be further discussions on the matter. However, the issue is not that simple. If Uddhav is declared the face right now, the BJP’s counter-offensive, especially on Hindutva, could intensify, potentially alienating the “secular” voter base of the Congress and Sharad Pawar.
While the Lok Sabha narrative worked in the MVA’s favor, the assembly elections will focus on local issues and seat-to-seat battles, so the other alliance partners are not in a hurry. Now that the Election Commission has postponed the Maharashtra assembly election dates, it seems that discussions over declaring the MVA’s chief ministerial candidate will take place in the final stages of seat-sharing talks.